In the first half of 2023 I conducted a study on the future of the global space economy for the future studies institute 2b AHEAD. Being based on in-depth expert interviews from both inside and outside the space sector, the study contains some wild predictions for the upcoming two decades: private space stations, modular, repairable satellites, a permanent Moon base, and nuclear propulsion. But many of these predictions stand on the assumption that SpaceX’s Starship will, as promised, dramatically ease accessibility to space. What if Starship fails? In this article, I would like to provide an overview of the consequences of Starship’s failure for future human activities in space.
