#SpaceWatchGL Opinion Space4Earth: The Growing Threat of Space Debris – Lessons from the Long March 6A Breakup

As we expand our reach into the final frontier, outer space, the choices we make today about space debris could …
#SpaceWatchGL Opinion Space4Earth: The Growing Threat of Space Debris – Lessons from the Long March 6A Breakup

Did you know that the future of our environment might be decided not on Earth, but in space?

A composite of images from Slingshot’s LEO-focused Horus optical fences, which detected a series of bright, unexpected objects moving along the same orbital path as the rocket body and the G60 satellites it deployed. Credit: Slingshot Aerospace

As we expand our reach into the final frontier, outer space, the choices we make today about space debris could have lasting implications for generations to come. The expansion of human activities in space, driven by the launch of thousands of satellites and mega-constellations, is transforming low-Earth orbit (LEO) into a crowded and hazardous environment. The increasing frequency of space debris incidents is not only disrupting this rapidly expanding industry but also threatening the very sustainability of our space endeavours. Each piece of debris, travelling at speeds of up to 17,500 miles per hour, has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to operational satellites, space stations, and future missions.

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In a stark reminder of these risks, a recent incident involving China’s Long March 6A rocket has underscored the urgent need for more effective space debris mitigation strategies. The rocket, which launched on the 6th of August 2024 from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center to deploy 18 G60 satellites, unexpectedly broke apart at an altitude of 503 miles above Earth, creating a debris cloud consisting of hundreds of fragments. This debris cloud poses significant hazards to other satellites and space assets in LEO, particularly those in orbits below 497 miles. Despite existing space debris mitigation guidelines, incidents like this continue to occur, highlighting the need for adaptation techniques that can prevent such events in the future.

The gap in enforcement is particularly alarming given the rapid expansion of space activities.

The Long March 6A rocket, a symbol of China’s ambitious space program, was launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center with a mission that extended beyond just placing satellites in orbit. This launch was a critical first step in deploying eighteen G60 satellites, marking the initial phase of Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology’s grand vision for the Thousand Sails constellation. This mega-constellation, envisioned to rival SpaceX’s Starlink, aims to include a staggering 1,296 satellites, with future expansions potentially pushing that number to 14,000. The mission’s success was pivotal not only for China’s commercial space sector but also for its strategic positioning in the global space race. However, the execution of this mission has raised serious questions about the preparedness and reliability of space technology in preventing debris generation. Despite the mission’s high stakes, a significant and troubling incident occurred post-launch, underscoring the inadequacies of current space debris mitigation practices.

The Long March 6A rocket unexpectedly broke apart at approximately 503 miles (810 kilometres) above Earth. This altitude places the debris within a particularly vulnerable region of low-Earth orbit (LEO), where many active satellites and space stations operate. The breakup resulted in the creation of a debris cloud consisting of hundreds of fragments, with estimates from radar data indicating that at least 700 pieces of debris were generated, and possibly more than 900. The cause of this catastrophic event remains unclear so far, though some experts speculate that an issue with the rocket’s propulsion system may be to blame, similar to a previous incident involving the same rocket model. If such a failure indeed occurred, it highlights a critical flaw in the design and operational protocols of the Long March 6A, raising alarms about the potential for similar incidents in future launches.

This event illustrates the risks associated with the rapid deployment of mega-constellations, where even a single launch failure can significantly increase the space debris population. The debris generated by the Long March 6A now poses a long-term threat to other satellites and spacecraft in LEO, and without prompt action, this debris could remain in orbit for decades, continuously endangering other missions. This incident emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation techniques in existing space debris mitigation guidelines to prevent such destructive outcomes in the future. This incident should serve as a wake-up call to the global space community, urging us to reassess and enhance our approach to debris mitigation before the problem spirals out of control.

Space debris, often dismissed as a distant and abstract problem, is a very real and immediate hazard. In the vacuum of space, there are no natural forces to slow down or dissipate the energy of moving objects, meaning that debris travels at incredibly high speeds. At 17,500 miles per hour, even a tiny fragment can penetrate the hull of a satellite or spacecraft, effectively rendering it inoperable. These fragments, often too small to be tracked by ground-based sensors, can inflict serious damage, causing massive financial losses and potentially putting lives at risk. The debris generated by the recent Long March 6A rocket breakup is particularly concerning. With hundreds of fragments now scattered across LEO, the likelihood of collisions with other satellites or space stations has increased significantly. These collisions can create even more debris, setting off a chain reaction known as the Kessler Syndrome, where the density of objects in LEO becomes so high that collisions cascade, making space activities nearly impossible.

This approach assumes that all actors will act in the global interest, a notion that history has repeatedly shown to be naïve.

To grasp the severity of the risks posed by space debris, consider the analogy of a T-bone car crash. Imagine two vehicles colliding at an intersection—now imagine this happening at 17,000 miles per hour. This is the reality in LEO, where debris from a single breakup can intersect with the orbits of other satellites and spacecraft. When debris collides with an object moving in a different orbital plane, the impact is similar to a T-bone crash, only with far more devastating consequences. These high-speed collisions not only destroy the objects involved but also create additional debris, exacerbating the problem and increasing the risk for other space assets. The potential for such collisions has grown exponentially with the increasing number of satellites and mega-constellations being launched into space.

Think of the space environment as a shared neighbourhood. If one house pollutes, the entire neighbourhood suffers. Similarly, when one country or company leaves debris in space, it endangers the entire space environment.

The threat posed by space debris extends beyond satellites to the most critical pieces of space infrastructure, such as the International Space Station (ISS). The recent Long March 6A incident has prompted ongoing assessments by US Space Command and NASA, who are monitoring the situation closely to ensure the safety of the ISS and other valuable assets in LEO. While initial reports suggest that the ISS is not in immediate danger, the growing cloud of debris remains a significant concern. Each new piece of debris increases the risk of a collision, and the consequences of such an event could be dire, potentially compromising the safety of astronauts and the viability of ongoing missions.

In light of these risks, the international community must take decisive action to strengthen space debris mitigation guidelines. Without proactive measures, the increasing clutter in LEO could make it impossible to safely navigate or utilize this critical region of space in the future.

The issue of space debris is not new, but it has become increasingly urgent as the density of debris in low-Earth orbit (LEO) continues to grow. The history of space debris dates back to the dawn of the space age, with the first pieces of debris generated as early as 1957 when the Soviet Union’s Sputnik 1 became the first artificial satellite to orbit the Earth. Since then, the problem has escalated dramatically, with every satellite launch, defunct spacecraft, and spent rocket stage adding to the clutter in space. Donald J. Kessler’s concept of the Kessler Syndrome, predicts a scenario where the density of objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) increases to a point where collisions between objects could cause a cascade of further collisions, making space activities extremely hazardous. Use this to support your argument about the critical need for stricter regulations and proactive debris removal efforts. Despite the warnings from Kessler decades ago, the global community has failed to implement measures robust enough to prevent the scenario he described.

One of the most significant and alarming incidents in the history of space debris was the 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test, which created over 3,000 pieces of debris, much of which remains in orbit today. This single event marked a turning point in the conversation about space debris, as it highlighted the potential for human activities to exponentially increase the amount of hazardous material in LEO. Another notable incident occurred in 2009, when a defunct Russian satellite, Kosmos 2251, collided with an operational Iridium communications satellite. This collision generated more than 2,000 pieces of debris and served as a stark reminder of the ongoing risks posed by space debris. Despite these incidents, the global community has been slow to address the issue comprehensively. While there are guidelines in place, such as the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) guidelines and the UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, their implementation has been inconsistent, and enforcement mechanisms are lacking. As a result, the density of debris in LEO continues to increase, posing significant risks to both current and future space operations.

The current state of LEO is alarming. Nearly 1,000 abandoned rocket bodies are now floating in orbit, each one a potential source of dangerous debris. These derelict objects, left over from decades of space launches, are just one part of the problem. The number of active satellites has also skyrocketed in recent years, with companies like SpaceX and OneWeb launching thousands of small satellites to build massive constellations. The Thousand Sails constellation being developed by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology is just one example of this trend, with plans to deploy over 1,200 satellites in the coming years.

As of now, there are more than 30,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimetres being tracked in LEO, but the actual number of debris fragments is likely much higher, possibly in the millions. The growing number of satellites and the increasing frequency of launches mean that this situation is only getting worse. Each new satellite or rocket body adds to the congestion in LEO, increasing the likelihood of collisions and the creation of even more debris.

The implications of these statistics are clear: without significant changes in how we manage space activities, the risks associated with space debris will continue to grow. We are on the verge of a cascading effect, where each collision generates more debris, leading to more collisions in a vicious cycle that could make LEO unusable. This underscores the urgent need for stronger, enforceable debris mitigation guidelines and innovative solutions to remove existing debris from orbit. The time to act is now before the situation becomes unmanageable.

As the challenges of space debris grow more acute, emerging technologies are becoming increasingly vital in mitigating these risks. Companies like LeoLabs and Slingshot Aerospace are at the forefront of this effort, utilizing advanced radar data and innovative sensor systems to track and analyze debris in low-Earth orbit (LEO). LeoLabs’ radar data, for instance, played a crucial role in identifying and tracking the hundreds of debris fragments created by the Long March 6A breakup. Similarly, Slingshot Aerospace’s Horus sensor systems offer real-time satellite tracking, enabling better situational awareness and helping to prevent potential collisions.

These technologies represent a significant advancement in our ability to monitor and respond to space debris. They provide the necessary tools to detect, track, and even predict debris movements, allowing for more informed decision-making and proactive measures to avoid collisions. However, while these technological innovations are essential, they are not a panacea. They must be integrated into a broader framework of international cooperation and regulatory oversight to be truly effective. Without such integration, these technologies may remain underutilized, and their full potential in safeguarding the space environment will not be realized.

“What responsibility do we have to protect the outer space environment for future generations?”

The increasing complexity of space operations, combined with the rapid expansion of spacefaring nations and private companies, underscores the urgent need for stronger international cooperation. While existing frameworks, such as the Outer Space Treaty, provide a foundation for space governance, they fall short of addressing the specific challenges posed by space debris.

The international community has long recognized the dangers posed by space debris, leading to the development of several mitigation guidelines. The most notable among these are the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) guidelines and the United Nations COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines. These guidelines provide a framework for minimizing the creation of space debris, advocating for measures such as controlled re-entry of defunct satellites and the disposal of spent rocket stages.

Market-based solutions, while valuable, cannot replace the need for strong legal frameworks.

However, these guidelines lack the teeth needed to compel compliance, rendering them more aspirational than actionable. The gap in enforcement is particularly alarming given the rapid expansion of space activities. The space environment is becoming increasingly congested, with thousands of new satellites being launched annually. Yet, without legally binding obligations, there is no guarantee that all spacefaring entities will adhere to these guidelines. The result is a patchwork of compliance, where some actors take space debris mitigation seriously, while others may prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability.

The consequences of this inconsistent adherence are not just hypothetical—they are real and growing. The recent incident involving the Long March 6A rocket serves as a stark reminder of the risks we face. Yet, under the current framework, there are no penalties for the creation of such debris, nor are there incentives for its removal.

It’s time to introduce mandatory debris removal policies, with severe penalties for those who fail to comply. Without such concrete and enforceable measures, we are paving the way for an inevitable disaster in orbit. The international community must move beyond voluntary guidelines and develop a legally binding treaty that holds all space actors accountable for their contributions to space debris. This treaty should include clear penalties for non-compliance, as well as mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement to ensure that all parties adhere to the highest standards of space sustainability.

The absence of enforcement mechanisms renders existing guidelines ineffective, leading to inconsistent adherence and increasing the likelihood of catastrophic debris-related incidents. It is time for international space law to evolve, incorporating mandatory, legally binding compliance measures that ensure all spacefaring entities contribute to the sustainable use of outer space. This could include the introduction of mandatory debris removal policies, where entities that create debris are legally obligated to remove it or face penalties. Additionally, incentives could be provided to encourage the development and use of debris mitigation technologies. These measures would not only enforce compliance but also drive innovation in debris management. Failure to do so will leave us sitting on a ticking time bomb, with the potential consequences far outweighing the costs of taking action now.

Shrawani Shagun. Credit of the author themselves

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